The trader who accurately called the 2018 bear market bottom for Bitcoin (BTC) warns that the flagship cryptocurrency may replicate its 2020 price action when it collapsed from $10,000 to $4,000 in a matter of weeks.

Pseudonymous analyst Bluntz tells his 225,200 followers on the social media platform X that he believes that Bitcoin has already printed a cycle bottom at around $15,000.

However, the top trader notes that it is within the realm of possibility for BTC to drop all the way down to $19,000 before launching a full-blown bull market next year.

“Personally, I feel that BTC has probably bottomed at $15,000 but also that we are in the 2019-2020 part of the cycle where we can still easily come down to $19,000-$20,000 and put in a higher low and continue higher throughout 2024.”

At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $27,612, down over 1% in the last 24 hours.

Bluntz says that he’s also keeping a close watch on the TOTAL chart, which tracks the market capitalization of all crypto assets. According to the trader, TOTAL looks primed to witness another leg down after completing an ABC bounce and printing a bearish lower-high setup.

“TOTAL looks like it’s about to roll over, in my opinion. I think this most recent rally is exhausted.” 

Bluntz utilizes the Elliott Wave theory in his analysis. The Elliot Wave theory is a technical analysis approach that attempts to predict future price action by following crowd psychology that tends to manifest in waves. According to the theory, a bearish asset may go through an ABC move to the upside before continuing its downtrend.

At time of writing, TOTAL is trading for $1.05 trillion.

As for the smart contract platform Avalanche (AVAX), Bluntz thinks that the altcoin’s bounce is over after failing to take out resistance at around $11.

“AVAX rejected hard form a key level on the back of the Stars Arena hack. It was a good move from the low but not worth continuing to hold in my opinion.”

During the weekend, the Avalanche-based social finance (SocialFi) app Stars Arena was hacked to the tune of $2.9 million worth of AVAX.

At time of writing, AVAX is worth $9.56, down over 4% in the past day.

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